When will moores law hit a big hard atomic wall?

[x88x]

for scientific use a computer can't be too powerful anyways...

This is very true, but for scientific use size doesn't always matter as much as it does for consumer use. TBH, I think we'll eventually move to a hybrid of the two states I mentioned, where you can have a crazy powerful computer in your pocket, but if you need even more insane power, you connect to a remote system that you either own or rent time on (kinda coming full circle, in a way). For pretty much everything except for graphics this is stupid easy to do even now (especially with Linux), but integrating it into consumer devices and making it easy for the proverbial grandmother to use will be the biggest hurdle, imo.

I know I'll probably look back on this in a few years time and laugh at myself, but I really think we're approaching a different wall in the consumer market, where the amount of processing power required by the vast majority of people is far outstripped by the power available with hardware of the time. I think we're mostly there already with the desktop market, except for gamers. Even PC graphics, I think, will hit a wall in the next 5-10 years, where you can't really improve the graphics quality anymore, and we can live-render true photorealistic video on our desktops. The problem will be with mobile devices, but I think with the recent improvements in the ARM architecture, and if we can integrate a good, standardized, remote processing architecture, that could easily hit this wall as well.

Of course, scientific, enterprise, and a few other computing markets will continue to require more and more power, but for the other 80-90% of the market, I really think we'll reach a point where it doesn't matter.

[dr.walrus]

One thing people forget is that even though the calculations _may_ be faster than most human brains, there is still the step of input that is done by a human. This is where humans can be faster than a computer. I know people who can calculate large numbers faster than you can type the problem into a computer.

I would seriously question this, apart from very specific situations. The vast majority of the information to be processed is machine-produced anyway, and you should know full well how fast a bulk insert via SQL is

[dr.walrus]

I really think we're approaching a different wall in the consumer market

'The wall' is the atomic limit of the current lithography processes, where there's enough quantum tunnelling to render existing proceses totally ineffective. Intel estimates that to be 16nm transistors with 5nm gates, that's not different between home PCs and workstations matey!

[Airbozo]

I would seriously question this, apart from very specific situations. The vast majority of the information to be processed is machine-produced anyway, and you should know full well how fast a bulk insert via SQL is

I agree, but if you are comparing computer calculations to human calculations you have to level the playing field since the human brain does not YET have a way to input an SQL database.

lol

Go John Henry GO!

[dr.walrus]

I agree, but if you are comparing computer calculations to human calculations you have to level the playing field since the human brain does not YET have a way to input an SQL database.

I think you'll find a bulk insert loads a .csv file, not an SQL database itself

[x88x]

'The wall' is the atomic limit of the current lithography processes, where there's enough quantum tunnelling to render existing proceses totally ineffective. Intel estimates that to be 16nm transistors with 5nm gates, that's not different between home PCs and workstations matey!

Yes, I know the same processes are used in consumer and enterprise markets. If you read more than just the first half of the first sentence of what I wrote, you would see that's not what I was talking about. The 'wall' I was referring to there is a matter of demand, not technical capability.

[Airbozo]

I think you'll find a bulk insert loads a .csv file, not an SQL database itself

lol

Well then we need a way to input a cvs file directly to the brains math calculation center...

[dr.walrus]

Yes, I know the same processes are used in consumer and enterprise markets. If you read more than just the first half of the first sentence of what I wrote, you would see that's not what I was talking about. The 'wall' I was referring to there is a matter of demand, not technical capability.

Lol i didn't mean it to sound so patronising - I was just making a joke of that's how this seems to read:

I think we're mostly there already with the desktop market, except for gamers. Even PC graphics, I think, will hit a wall in the next 5-10 years, where you can't really improve the graphics quality anymore, and we can live-render true photorealistic video on our desktops. The problem will be with mobile devices, but I think with the recent improvements in the ARM architecture, and if we can integrate a good, standardized, remote processing architecture, that could easily hit this wall as well.

[x88x]

lol

Well then we need a way to input a cvs file directly to the brains math calculation center...

Sweet! Think I could get a couple USB 3.0 controllers built into my brain? That would be awesome!

[slaveofconvention]

Sweet! Think I could get a couple USB 3.0 controllers built into my brain? That would be awesome!

Then you'd have to choose if you want the ports in your nostrils or ears.... Either would suit you, I'm sure :p