Tech Industry Analysis

[Wetworks]

I atttached this article less for the financial reasons and more for what is intimated at the end. http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=28895

For those of you that have followed this, I believe wholeheartedly that this tango is about to start. However, I believe it will include not only Apple, Intel, Dell, AMD, and Microsoft, but also Nvidia.

When Intel and Apple made their initial announcement to work together, it seemed to me that Dell would logically start courting AMD. That did not happen, and it appears they will eventually eat crow and start seriously using AMD solutions soon now that Apple and Intel went out of their way to announce a joint PC six months early !

Additionally, Nvidia "kindly" signed a cross-liscensing agreement with Intel during all of this to allow the development of Intel compliant NF4 and SLI boards. This put Nvidia in Dell's house, so to speak. AMD will not be far behind. AMD has anticipated this with their deal with IBM and their Fishkill complex.

Performance and demand can only be ignored for so long, and Dell sees an opportunity to A) improve their product through the use of superior hardware, and B) exhibit more influence over a chip manufacturer, much like they wagged the dog with Intel, who they now have less influence over because of the Apple deal.

This brings me to Microsoft. They are trying to position themselves, factoring in three things: Competition from Apple's (perceived) better OS versus Vista, whatever Google and Sun are trying to do, and attaching their name to a superior end user product (PC). Apple's OS is highly regarded, is now x86 compliant, and their machines, while not more powerful, are considered must haves. Now, if you're Microsoft, wouldn't you want your face to be associated with a product that is superior and desirable, hardware-wise, right out of the box? Well, they can't do that with Apple. So, I forsee, in time for the release of Vista, the "Dell Dimension64 xxxx Vista Ready".

Nvidia is the wild card here with their cross-license with Intel, their dominating hold on the AMD market, and their allocation of ULI. Should be fun.

The one filibuster is AMD's anit-trust suit against Intel. Of course, I'm sure they would be willing to just drop that if they get what they want; a big name OEM contract from someone like Dell.

Just my $0.02.
What do you guys think?

[Zeus]

I am really not so sure about your analysis of the relationship between Intel and Dell. I am sure that in that partnership, Intel is calling most of the shots. Their contract with Dell through the use of "incentives" is what has mostly kept Dell from making AMD based offerings.

Another point to consider is that Dell had not given AMD a more thorough look because they lacked the facilities to produce their chips in the quantities Dell would need. Dell has no interest in having a machine built and ready but waiting for a CPU. I know AMD is gaining ground in this aspect, but I don't think they are where they need to be just yet.

It will be interesting to see how things develop as the time passes. I just hope that the increase in viable competition with microsoft gives MS the swift kick in the pants it needs to get some of it's products into better shape.

It will also be interesting to see how the Intel/Apple partnership and subsequent future computer release will affect the gaming community.